Today's Ahead of the Tape:
http://online.wsj.com/article/ahead_of_the_tape.html
(After today -- 7.9.10 -- click "Recent Columns" below the ads in the righthand column and look for "Bulls Look for Reason to Get Excited")
Bulk of my reply:
Nice AotT again (the bovine pheromone one). I take issue, however, w/ the double-dip reference (likewise w/ everyone else using the term). I know it refers only to the stock market, but I would prefer to develop a new indicator (this one might be impossible to gauge, but I have a concept at least). It would combine a measure of the following:
1) one of the major indices or a cross-sector sampling of stock prices as a percentage of what it would be if the constituent companies were operating at full capacity
2) workforce utilization -- full employment percentage of the available workforce (taking into account underemployment in some way)
The numbers could be added together to get something similar to alcoholic proof. If this measure is possible, I believe it would show the last 6 months to a year of "recovery" as mere flatlining (or "sideways" movement) at probably somewhere around 150-180.
But it might be easier to do something else, which I believe might demonstrate that we must go down some more before solid recovery begins. That would be measuring consumer purchases of indispensable goods (food, utilities, shelter) as a percentage of total consumer spending. This would show that items such as big-screen 3D TVs and iPads/smartphones as well as gaming consoles represent too high a percentage of consumer spending. We haven't fully engaged in the requisite belt-tightening which will position us to make our labor costs competitive w/ the rest of the world. Theirs are rising, but we must also make sacrifices in order to be able to sell our services at all in many cases (sorry, Best Buy & Apple).
